ThinkTankWeekly

China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply

Chatham House | 2026-03-19 | china_indopacific

Topics: AI, China, Middle East, Trade, United States

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English Summary

China’s 15th Five Year Plan codifies a long-term shift toward economic resilience and technological self-reliance, driven by perceived vulnerabilities in globalized supply chains and geopolitical instability like the Iran war. The strategy emphasizes 'AI Plus' initiatives and increased R&D spending to secure autonomy in semiconductors, quantum tech, and digital infrastructure. However, this transition faces significant headwinds, including record-low growth targets and a capital-intensive tech focus that struggles to absorb a highly educated workforce. Ultimately, Beijing is prioritizing national security and high-quality manufacturing over the debt-driven, rapid expansion models of the past.

中文摘要

中國的「十五五」規劃確立了向經濟韌性和科技自立自強的長期轉向,這主要受全球供應鏈脆弱性及地緣政治動盪(如伊朗戰爭)所驅動。該戰略強調「人工智能+」倡議並增加研發支出,以確保半導體、量子技術及數位基礎設施的自主權。然而,這一轉型面臨顯著挑戰,包括創紀錄的低增長目標,以及資本密集型的技術重點難以吸納高學歷勞動力。最終,北京正將國家安全與高質量製造業置於優先地位,取代過去債務驅動的快速擴張模式。

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