The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Europe Programme
English Summary
Chatham House’s Europe Programme argues that Europe needs practical, implementation-focused policy work to navigate a period of geopolitical and political disruption. Its reasoning is that combining EU, NATO, and country-level expertise can turn broad strategic goals into actionable recommendations, especially across its 2024–2027 priorities: the EU’s future, European security, and Europe’s global role. The programme also treats election outcomes and growing political fragmentation as cross-cutting forces that shape progress in all three areas. For policymakers, the implication is to pursue integrated strategies that link institutional reform, security planning, and external action while stress-testing decisions against domestic political volatility across Europe.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）歐洲計畫主張，歐洲在地緣政治與政治動盪加劇的時期，需要更務實、以執行為導向的政策工作。其論點在於，整合歐盟、北約與各國層級的專業能力，可將宏觀戰略目標轉化為可操作的政策建議，尤其是在其 2024–2027 年三項重點：歐盟的未來、歐洲安全，以及歐洲的全球角色。該計畫亦將選舉結果與日益嚴重的政治碎片化視為跨領域因素，認為其會共同塑造上述三大領域的進展。對決策者而言，意涵是應推動整合性策略，將制度改革、安全規劃與對外行動連結起來，並在全歐洲國內政治波動的情境下，持續對政策決策進行壓力測試。
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