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Botswana's future: Vice President Gaolathe on economic resilience amid global uncertainty

Chatham House | 2026-09-02 | economy

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English Summary

The core finding is that Botswana must undergo significant economic transformation to achieve sustainable growth and resilience amid global uncertainty. Key evidence points to the diminishing returns of the historical diamond-dependent model, necessitating a strategic pivot following the first change of governing party since independence. Consequently, policy efforts must prioritize diversifying the economy away from resource extraction, identifying new sectors for growth, and strengthening national infrastructure to mitigate risks posed by climate shocks and geopolitical instability.

中文摘要

核心發現指出，博茨าน那若要在全球不確定性背景下實現可持續增長與韌性，必須進行重大的經濟轉型。關鍵證據顯示，歷史上依賴鑽石的模式已面臨邊際效益遞減（diminishing returns）的問題，這要求在自獨立以來首次更迭執政黨之後，必須進行戰略性的轉向。因此，政策努力必須優先將經濟多元化，擺脫對資源開採的過度依賴；識別新的增長產業；並加強國家基礎設施，以減緩氣候衝擊和地緣政治不穩定的風險。

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