ThinkTankWeekly

Armenia's pivotal election: What is at stake?

Chatham House | 2026-05-24 | middle_east

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English Summary

The upcoming Armenian election is framed as a pivotal national referendum on the peace terms negotiated with Azerbaijan, making the outcome far more significant than mere political incumbency. The process is highly volatile, driven by domestic skepticism regarding the negotiated peace terms and compounded by intense external geopolitical interference. This confluence of factors threatens the stability of Armenia's democratic transition, which has been fragile since 2018. Consequently, the election's results will critically determine the viability and future trajectory of Armenia's ongoing peace process with Azerbaijan, demanding careful monitoring by external powers.

中文摘要

即將到來的亞美尼亞選舉被視為一場關於與阿塞拜疆協商和平條款的關鍵國家公投，其結果的重大意義遠超單純的政治權力繼承。此一過程極不穩定，其驅動因素包括國內對協商和平條款的懷疑，並因外部地緣政治干預的加劇而複雜化。這些因素的匯集威脅著亞美尼亞自2018年以來就一直脆弱的民主轉型穩定性。因此，此次選舉的結果將決定亞美尼亞與阿塞拜疆持續和平進程的可行性與未來走向，需要外部大國進行密切關注。

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