The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
It isn't easy being green: The UK's net zero trilemma
English Summary
The UK faces a 'net zero trilemma,' suggesting that achieving decarbonization goals is severely complicated by competing domestic and international pressures. Key tensions include balancing ambitious power generation targets with growing demands for defense spending, while simultaneously addressing concerns from the left regarding potential job losses due to welfare cuts. This challenge is compounded by external market forces, specifically China's subsidized green technology which creates a surplus of cheap clean energy equipment. Policymakers must therefore navigate this complex intersection of security needs, social commitments, and climate goals to ensure a viable path toward net zero.
中文摘要
英國面臨「淨零三難題」（net zero trilemma），這表明實現脫碳目標受到國內和國際競爭壓力的高度複雜化。主要的張力包括：如何在雄心勃勃的發電目標與不斷增長的國防開支需求之間取得平衡；同時，還必須應對左翼方面對於福利削減可能導致失業潮的擔憂。這種挑戰因外部市場力量而加劇，特別是中國補貼的綠色技術，造成了廉價清潔能源設備的過剩供應。因此，政策制定者必須在安全需求、社會承諾和氣候目標這個複雜的交匯點上周旋，以確保邁向淨零排放的可行路徑。
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