The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Hormuz crisis could lead to constructive dialogue between ASEAN and China in the South China Sea
English Summary
The energy crisis stemming from the Middle East is creating a strategic opening for ASEAN nations, particularly the Philippines, to re-engage with China on joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. This economic necessity provides a critical incentive for Beijing to cooperate on regional stability, allowing the Philippines to leverage its ASEAN chairmanship and growing US alliance to push for a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC). Policymakers should view this window of dialogue as a unique opportunity to advance international law (UNCLOS) and transform temporary energy cooperation into permanent maritime security agreements, thereby mitigating great power competition risks.
中文摘要
源自中東的能源危機為東盟國家，特別是菲律賓，提供了一個戰略窗口，使其能夠在南海與中國就共同油氣勘探重新建立合作。這種經濟上的必要性，為北京提供了合作維持區域穩定的關鍵誘因，使菲律賓能夠利用其東盟主席地位和日益穩固的美國聯盟，推動建立具有約束力的南海行為準則（CoC）。政策制定者應將這一對話窗口視為一個獨特的機會，藉此推進國際法（《聯合國海洋法公約》），並將臨時的能源合作轉化為永久的海域安全協議，從而減緩大國競爭帶來的風險。
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