ThinkTankWeekly

North Korea’s ‘Victory Day’ takes place with Kim Jong Un’s power transformed

Chatham House | 2026-08-08 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

North Korea’s strategic status has undergone a dramatic inversion since 2019, transforming it from an isolated supplicant into a vital military asset for Russia and China. This shift is underpinned by Pyongyang's advanced nuclear capabilities, missile technology, and willingness to provide expendable manpower, notably supplying troops to support Moscow's war in Ukraine. While still dependent on major powers, North Korea’s enhanced military value means that its actions—despite the regime's false 'Victory Day' mythology—pose a significantly more formidable threat to regional stability. Policy must therefore account for Pyongyang's increased strategic importance and its role as a key destabilizing factor in East Asia.

中文摘要

自2019年以來,朝鮮的戰略地位經歷了戲劇性的逆轉,從一個孤立的乞援者,轉變為俄羅斯和中國重要的軍事資產。這一轉變的基礎是平壤先進的核能力、導彈技術,以及提供可消耗人力(特別是向支持莫斯科在烏克蘭戰爭的戰場提供部隊)的意願。儘管朝鮮仍依賴大國支援,但其增強的軍事價值意味著,即使該政權宣揚虛假的「勝利日」神話,其行動對區域穩定構成了更為嚴峻的威脅。因此,政策制定必須考慮平壤日益增加的戰略重要性,以及其作為東亞關鍵不穩定因素的角色。

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