The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Chatham House partners with African Mining Indaba 2026
English Summary
Chatham House argues that African mining has become a core geopolitical and economic arena, and that African governments must take more strategic roles to secure development gains from the critical minerals race. The Institute cites its engagement at Mining Indaba 2026, including ministerial discussions and a UNDP-facilitated roundtable, as evidence that debates are shifting from resource nationalism toward active state participation in mining and processing value chains. Its experts emphasize that US and other responses to China’s supply-chain dominance are restructuring global markets, raising the stakes for countries without equity or policy leverage. Strategically, the piece implies African policymakers should align permitting, industrialization, and infrastructure planning with stronger state-industry coordination to capture long-term value and avoid marginalization.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）指出，非洲採礦業已成為地緣政治與經濟競逐的核心場域，非洲各國政府必須採取更具戰略性的角色，才能在關鍵礦產競賽中確保發展收益。該研究機構以其在 2026 年非洲礦業大會（Mining Indaba 2026）的參與為例，包括部長級對話與由聯合國開發計劃署（UNDP）促成的圓桌會議，作為相關辯論正由資源民族主義轉向國家積極參與採礦與加工價值鏈的證據。其專家強調，美國及其他國家對中國供應鏈主導地位的回應正在重塑全球市場，並提高了缺乏股權或政策槓桿國家的風險。從戰略層面看，本文意涵是非洲決策者應將許可審批、工業化與基礎設施規劃，與更強的政產協調機制加以對齊，以攫取長期價值並避免被邊緣化。
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