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Germany rearms – but can it lead? Europe’s hesitant superpower in waiting

Chatham House | 2026-05-04 | europe

Topics: China, Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Germany's 'Zeitenwende' signals a profound shift from economic influence to strategic military leadership, positioning it as an increasingly assertive and unavoidable power in Europe. While substantial funding and procurement (e.g., F-35s, special funds) demonstrate political intent, the article argues that this rearmament risks outpacing strategic coherence. Key challenges include persistent deficiencies in the Bundeswehr's readiness, the lack of a unified military doctrine, and deep institutional inertia. For Germany to successfully assume a leading role, it must overcome these internal structural hurdles—including its risk-averse economic model and political fragmentation—to translate resources into usable, deployable force.

中文摘要

德國的「時代轉變」(Zeitenwende)標誌著其角色正從經濟影響力轉向戰略軍事領導地位,使其成為歐洲一個日益積極且不可或缺的強權。儘管可觀的資金投入和採購(例如F-35戰機、特別基金)展現了政治意圖,但本文認為,這種重整軍備的舉動有過快超越戰略連貫性的風險。關鍵挑戰包括德國聯邦國防軍(Bundeswehr)持續存在的戰備不足、缺乏統一的軍事學說,以及深層的制度慣性。若想成功承擔領導角色,德國必須克服這些內在的結構性障礙——包括其風險規避的經濟模式和政治碎片化——才能將資源轉化為可用且可部署的實戰力量。

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