The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
War in Ukraine
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Russia’s invasion is not only devastating Ukraine physically but also accelerating a deeper political transition away from entrenched old-rule networks and vested interests. Its reasoning is that Ukraine was already under internal pressure for reform, and wartime mobilization has intensified public demand for new rules and empowered a newer generation of policymakers. The analysis also stresses that sustained external backing for Ukraine’s defense is structurally shaping the country’s postwar trajectory, making a return to prewar political equilibrium unlikely. Policy-wise, partners should pair military support with long-term institution-building and governance reform assistance to lock in a more resilient Ukrainian state.
中文摘要
研究所指出，俄羅斯的入侵不僅在物理層面重創烏克蘭，也正在加速其更深層的政治轉型，使其逐步脫離根深蒂固的舊體制網絡與既得利益結構。其論證認為，烏克蘭原本即承受內部改革壓力，而戰時動員進一步強化了社會對新規則的需求，並賦權給新一代政策制定者。該分析亦強調，國際社會持續支持烏克蘭防衛，正從結構上塑造其戰後發展路徑，使其回到戰前政治均衡的可能性降低。就政策而言，夥伴國應將軍事援助與長期制度建設及治理改革支持相結合，以鞏固更具韌性的烏克蘭國家體制。
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