ThinkTankWeekly

Europe watches the next American revolution take shape

Chatham House | 2026-07-02 | europe

Topics: China, Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that deep internal political divisions in the US—centering on healthcare, economic justice, and federal spending—are leading to a fundamental shift toward a more inwardly focused nation-state. European leaders anticipate this change, predicting a post-Washington era characterized by transactionalism, reduced global defense commitments, and greater focus on domestic manufacturing. Consequently, Europe is accelerating investments in independent defense industrial bases, sovereign AI, and space capabilities to reduce dependency on the US. While alliances will persist, they will be narrower; for transatlantic stability, Europe must enhance its own self-reliance while maintaining cooperation with the US in global finance, technology, and managing China.

中文摘要

本文指出,美國深層的內部政治分歧——主要圍繞醫療保健、經濟正義和聯邦支出展開——正在導致國家轉向更內向型的狀態。歐洲領導人預期了這一變化,預測這是一個「後華盛頓時代」,其特點是交易主義、全球防禦承諾的縮減,以及對國內製造業的更高關注。因此,歐洲正加速投資於獨立國防工業基地、主權人工智慧和太空能力,以降低對美國的依賴性。儘管聯盟關係仍會持續,但將會更為狹隘;為了實現跨大西洋穩定,歐洲必須增強自身的自立性,同時在全球金融、技術以及應對中國問題等方面與美國維持合作。

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