The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Do Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions inevitably lead to military action?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that 'maximum pressure' sanctions, especially those aimed at regime change, are inherently unstable and create a dangerous escalatory momentum toward military action. The evidence points to repeated failures—such as the decades-long sanctions on Cuba and the inability to topple the Venezuelan regime—demonstrating that sanctions alone are insufficient to achieve stated political goals. Consequently, the risk of military intervention is not limited to a single administration but is a systemic policy danger for any US government that implements punitive sanctions without a coherent strategy for de-escalation or negotiation. Policymakers must therefore view sanctions as a limited tool, ensuring they are paired with clear off-ramps to prevent unnecessary conflict.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，所謂的「最大壓力」制裁，特別是那些旨在促成政權更迭的制裁，本質上是不穩定的，並會產生危險的升級動能，最終導向軍事行動。證據顯示，從古巴數十年的制裁，到無法推翻委內瑞拉政權的經驗，都表明單純的制裁不足以達成既定的政治目標。因此，軍事干預的風險並非僅限於某個政府時期，而是任何實施懲罰性制裁、卻缺乏明確降級或談判策略的美國政府所面臨的系統性政策風險。政策制定者必須將制裁視為一種有限的工具，確保其搭配清晰的退出機制，以預防不必要的衝突。
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