The Chatham House analysis concludes that the UK's Defence Investment Plan (DIP) will be viewed by NATO allies as a mixed bag, primarily due to its failure to commit to higher GDP spending targets. However, the plan signals critical strategic improvements by emphasizing novel technologies—such as autonomous systems and digital infrastructure—and enhancing readiness. Crucially, the DIP adopts an international focus through major collaborative programs (e.g., AUKUS, GCAP) and establishes a new National Armaments Director Group (NADG). This structural shift toward flexible, portfolio-based collaboration is strategically valuable for NATO allies seeking reliable partners as US conventional forces reduce their European presence.
Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’
English Summary
The report argues that the global economic order faces significant disruption from both the unpredictable policies of the US (the 'Trump shock') and China's resistance to international economic norms. To safeguard principles of openness and mutual benefit, the authors advocate for establishing a permanent 'third pole' alliance of market-oriented economies. This new bloc would be designed to preserve core economic rules by excluding both the US and China. Key members should include the EU and the CPTPP nations, supplemented by other major economies like Brazil and South Korea to create a large, effective, and rules-based economic space.
中文摘要
該報告主張，全球經濟秩序正遭受來自美國不可預測政策（即「川普衝擊」）和中國對國際經濟規範的抵制所帶來的重大動盪。為保護開放和互惠互利的原則，作者們倡議建立一個永久性的「第三極」聯盟，該聯盟由市場導向型經濟體組成。這個新經濟集團旨在排除美國和中國，從而維護核心經濟規則。其關鍵成員應包括歐盟（EU）和CPTPP成員國，並輔以巴西、韓國等其他主要經濟體，以打造一個規模龐大、高效且基於規則的經濟空間。
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The Chatham House article proposes the "Makerfield Test," arguing that UK foreign policy must abandon elite diplomatic frameworks and instead be grounded in the tangible, lived realities of local communities. The reasoning is that global shocks—such as energy spikes and supply chain disruptions—impact regional towns first, making international choices relevant only if they demonstrably improve life at the local level. Strategically, this requires policymakers to prioritize economic security, energy resilience, and rebalancing investment away from London's core. Ultimately, the Test advocates for a middle-power approach that avoids binary geopolitical alignments (e.g., US vs. China) while using global engagement as a tool for domestic renewal and regional opportunity.