ThinkTankWeekly

Saving global economic governance from the ‘Trump shock’

Chatham House | 2026-06-08 | economy

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The report argues that the global economic order faces significant disruption from both the unpredictable policies of the US (the 'Trump shock') and China's resistance to international economic norms. To safeguard principles of openness and mutual benefit, the authors advocate for establishing a permanent 'third pole' alliance of market-oriented economies. This new bloc would be designed to preserve core economic rules by excluding both the US and China. Key members should include the EU and the CPTPP nations, supplemented by other major economies like Brazil and South Korea to create a large, effective, and rules-based economic space.

中文摘要

該報告主張，全球經濟秩序正遭受來自美國不可預測政策（即「川普衝擊」）和中國對國際經濟規範的抵制所帶來的重大動盪。為保護開放和互惠互利的原則，作者們倡議建立一個永久性的「第三極」聯盟，該聯盟由市場導向型經濟體組成。這個新經濟集團旨在排除美國和中國，從而維護核心經濟規則。其關鍵成員應包括歐盟（EU）和CPTPP成員國，並輔以巴西、韓國等其他主要經濟體，以打造一個規模龐大、高效且基於規則的經濟空間。

Related Entries

1. 1.

   Wildfires and extreme heat show climate change is now Europe’s biggest security threat (Chatham House)

   2026-09-02 | europe | 2026-W36 | Topics: Climate, Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine

   The Chatham House report argues that climate change represents Europe's greatest systemic security threat, citing recent extreme heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires that have caused massive economic losses, infrastructure failures, and excess deaths. These environmental shocks disrupt critical services (like energy supply) and increase vulnerability to non-conventional threats, forcing military resources to divert personnel away from traditional defense roles. To counter this, the report mandates a comprehensive security approach: treating climate adaptation as core national security spending, accelerating decarbonization to address root causes, and building robust societal resilience through coordinated civil preparedness.

   Read at Chatham House

2. 2.

   Zambia’s election: President Hichilema must preserve his country’s democratic reputation (Chatham House)

   2026-09-02 | africa | 2026-W36 | Topics: Europe

   The Chatham House analysis argues that for Zambia to sustain its economic reforms and attract vital foreign investment, President Hichilema must prioritize preserving democratic institutions during the upcoming election. While macroeconomic stabilization has restored international confidence, political legitimacy hinges on a credible electoral process, as voters are yet to feel the benefits of abstract financial rehabilitation. Consequently, international allies are advised to act as 'critical friends,' ensuring that their support for economic stability is consistently coupled with demands for institutional integrity and democratic restraint. This balanced approach is vital to prevent authoritarian drift from undermining Zambia's foundational political capital.

   Read at Chatham House

3. 3.

   Iraq Initiative Conference 2026 (Chatham House)

   2026-09-02 | middle_east | 2026-W36 | Topics: Middle East, Trade

   Iraq faces an existential test of state sovereignty and reform as it navigates intense regional instability. Key pressures include armed attacks from Iran-aligned groups, renewed questions about the state's monopoly on force due to external strikes, and severe economic strain stemming from oil market disruptions. The core challenge is managing escalating geopolitical competition between Washington and Tehran while simultaneously advancing institutional reforms necessary for economic diversification. International support must therefore focus not only on security stabilization but also on supporting Baghdad’s efforts to build a resilient, independent course away from volatile energy dependence.

   Read at Chatham House

4. 4.

   Can negotiations between Venezuela’s government and opposition succeed? (Chatham House)

   2026-09-02 | americas | 2026-W36 | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

   The Chatham House analysis finds that recent negotiations between Venezuela's government and opposition are highly unlikely to succeed, citing a pattern of vague discussions and lack of concrete commitments. Key evidence includes the failure of multiple meetings to establish timelines or progress on critical issues like the release of political prisoners. The report suggests that external actors, particularly the US, may be prioritizing maintaining an illusion of stability (the 'Venezuela model') over forcing genuine democratic change. Consequently, policy efforts must recognize that success hinges entirely on Washington's willingness to apply strong, enforced leverage and detailed commitments, rather than merely facilitating another round of ill-defined dialogue.

   Read at Chatham House

5. 5.

   The summer of '26: A turning point for the climate crisis? (Chatham House)

   2026-09-02 | energy | 2026-W36 | Topics: Europe

   The Chatham House analysis examines the severity of the climate crisis, using the extreme weather events of Summer 2026—such as widespread European droughts and fires—as evidence of an urgent turning point. The core discussion centers on whether current global commitments are sufficient to reverse the climate spiral, particularly given geopolitical hurdles like US fossil fuel policies. Policymakers must weigh the practical application of mitigation (emissions reduction) against necessary adaptation strategies in real-world scenarios. Ultimately, the brief implies that a successful strategy requires immediate, coordinated action across technology and policy sectors to find a viable path forward.

   Read at Chatham House