The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
How should Ukraine prepare for peace while fighting the war?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis highlights that while Ukraine sustains its democratic institutions during wartime, significant challenges remain regarding institutional capacity and social cohesion. Key evidence points to martial law and widespread internal/external displacement jeopardizing electoral readiness and the preservation of pluralism. For policy, Kyiv must proactively develop mechanisms—such as ensuring voting access for displaced citizens and protecting checks and balances—to mitigate post-conflict instability and guard against potential Russian interference in the democratic transition.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，儘管烏克蘭在戰時維持了其民主制度，但在機構能力和社會凝聚力方面仍存在重大挑戰。關鍵證據顯示，戒嚴令以及大規模的內部/外部流離失所，正在危及選舉準備度與多元主義的維護。從政策層面來看，基輔必須主動發展機制——例如確保流離失所公民的投票權和保護制衡機制——以緩解戰後不穩定性，並防範潛在的俄羅斯干預民主轉型。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
3.
The U.S. is drastically reducing core funding to multilateral institutions, withdrawing from numerous bodies due to perceived misalignment with national interests. While multilateral channels offer critical advantages—such as pooling resources for global public goods and managing risk in fragile settings—the U.S.'s funding remains heavily 'earmarked,' which effectively 'bilateralizes' the system and undermines shared burden-sharing. This practice, coupled with deep cuts, diminishes the multilateral system's effectiveness and efficiency, particularly in humanitarian aid. Policy recommendations suggest the U.S. must adopt a systematic, published strategy for aid channel choice and shift from restrictive project-level earmarking to broader thematic funding to restore global cooperation.
-
4.
The article analyzes the deep ideological split within the Democratic Party regarding the future of U.S. foreign policy, pitting centrists against progressives. Centrists generally advocate for restoring a reformed U.S.-led international order and strengthening alliances, while progressives argue for a multipolar world that prioritizes transnational threats like climate change and AI over geopolitical competition. This division is most pronounced in the Middle East, where centrists push for greater pressure on Israel and a regional settlement, a shift largely welcomed by progressives. The core finding is that these internal debates threaten to consume a future administration with indecision, making it difficult for the U.S. to project a coherent and unified global strategy.
-
5.
Washington's increasing diplomatic and economic support for Morocco's claims over Western Sahara is significantly undermining regional peace efforts and exacerbating existing tensions. This alignment, which sidelines the UN's mandate (MINURSO) and solidifies a pro-Moroccan bloc, is evidenced by U.S. funding and political efforts to undermine the Polisario movement. Critically, this perceived bias is prompting regional rivals, particularly Algeria, to increase their own military and diplomatic involvement to counter the growing influence of the Morocco-Israel axis. Ultimately, the article warns that Washington's zero-sum approach of choosing sides, while aiming for stability, is likely to worsen the conflict outlook across the fragile North African continent.