The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that deteriorating global security and heightened concerns over technological vulnerability are shifting the AI race away from a simple US-China binary toward a more fragmented and multipolar market. This trend is driven by nations prioritizing tech sovereignty and defense-driven innovation, leading to a surge in dual-use technology investment. Consequently, the global AI industry is becoming more securitized, challenging the ability of the current leaders to maintain unchallenged dominance over the entire value chain or its global rollout. Policymakers must anticipate this fragmentation and prepare for a geopolitical restructuring of AI supply chains.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，全球安全環境惡化和對技術脆弱性的擔憂加劇，正促使人工智慧（AI）的發展競賽從簡單的美中二元對立，轉向一個更為分片化且多極化的市場。這一趨勢的驅動力是各國將技術主權和國防驅動的創新置於首位，從而導致軍民兩用技術投資激增。結果是，全球AI產業正日益「安全化」（securitized），這挑戰了現有領導者在整個價值鏈或全球推廣過程中維持不受質疑的支配地位。政策制定者必須預期這種碎片化，並為AI供應鏈的地緣政治重組做好準備。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
3.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
4.
The article analyzes the deep ideological split within the Democratic Party regarding the future of U.S. foreign policy, pitting centrists against progressives. Centrists generally advocate for restoring a reformed U.S.-led international order and strengthening alliances, while progressives argue for a multipolar world that prioritizes transnational threats like climate change and AI over geopolitical competition. This division is most pronounced in the Middle East, where centrists push for greater pressure on Israel and a regional settlement, a shift largely welcomed by progressives. The core finding is that these internal debates threaten to consume a future administration with indecision, making it difficult for the U.S. to project a coherent and unified global strategy.
-
5.
The article argues that the AI sector risks undergoing a 'digital Morganization,' where financial instability and overinvestment could lead to the consolidation of power among a few large hyperscalers. This concentration is driven by the financial vulnerability of independent data centers, which may struggle to support the massive debt financing the AI boom. While AI demand is soaring and costs are falling (Jevons Paradox), the resulting market structure threatens to eliminate competitive alternatives, leaving application developers reliant on the dominant Big AI players. Policymakers must proactively identify and mitigate these risks to prevent the loss of competitive infrastructure and maintain market diversity.