The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.
Coups and Other Irregular Leadership Changes
English Summary
The report argues that coups and irregular leadership changes are persistent, complex challenges requiring U.S. policymakers to abandon rigid playbooks due to rising global competition. Instead of a single approach, planners must adopt flexible strategies—Monitor, Contain, Restore, or Transform—and prioritize acting early to prevent crises rather than reacting after the fact. Effective responses require managing inherent trade-offs between promoting democracy and maintaining crucial security access, while also treating the information domain as an operational battlefield against disinformation. Ultimately, U.S. strategy must be adaptable, setting realistic objectives and pairing calibrated pressure with direct engagement.
中文摘要
本報告指出，由於全球競爭加劇，政變和非正規的領導層更迭是持續且複雜的挑戰。因此，美國政策制定者必須放棄僵化的行動腳本（playbooks）。規劃者不能採取單一方法，而必須採用靈活的策略——包括「監測」、「遏制」、「恢復」或「轉型」——並應將重點放在提早行動以預防危機，而非事後反應。有效的應對措施要求管理促進民主與維持關鍵安全通道之間的固有權衡取捨，同時將資訊領域視為一場反對虛假訊息的戰區。最終，美國的策略必須具備適應性，設定務實的目標，並將校準的壓力（calibrated pressure）與直接參與結合運用。
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