The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Why Global Rearmament Could Become the Biggest Fiscal Stimulus Story Since the Pandemic
English Summary
The article argues that global rearmament is poised to become the biggest fiscal stimulus story since the pandemic, fundamentally reshaping global economies and politics. Driven by rising geopolitical tensions (e.g., China, Middle East) and the adoption of advanced technologies like AI, nations are making massive, double-digit increases in defense spending. Because these military buildups are primarily financed through increased borrowing, they are rapidly escalating global government debt and deficits. This fiscal strain is projected to push up interest rates and cause market volatility, creating a difficult dilemma for central banks caught between fighting inflation and financing national defense.
中文摘要
本文論述，全球再武裝化有望成為自疫情以來最大的財政刺激敘事，從根本上重塑全球經濟和政治格局。由於地緣政治緊張局勢的升級（例如中國和中東地區）以及人工智慧等先進技術的採用，各國正在大幅增加國防開支，實現兩位數增長。由於這些軍事建置主要透過增加借貸來資助，這正在迅速推高全球政府債務和赤字。預計這種財政壓力將推升利率並引發市場波動，為中央銀行帶來兩難困境：它們必須在抗擊通膨和為國家國防提供資金之間做出艱難的權衡。
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