ThinkTankWeekly

Paris to Kyoto: The History of UN Climate Agreements

CFR | 2026-02-22 | energy

Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that while international climate agreements like the Paris Accord have fostered diplomacy, current national commitments remain insufficient to prevent dangerous global warming, a situation exacerbated by the United States' recent withdrawal from UN climate bodies. Evidence indicates that global temperatures already breached the 1.5°C threshold in 2024, and the U.S. departure from the UNFCCC significantly reduces the organization's funding while signaling a domestic return to fossil fuel prioritization. Consequently, the lack of U.S. participation is expected to delay the global transition to net-zero, forcing a strategic shift toward alternative frameworks like universal carbon pricing and minilateral cooperation through the G20.

中文摘要

本文指出,雖然《巴黎協定》等國際氣候協議促進了外交合作,但目前各國的承諾仍不足以防止危險的全球暖化,而美國近期退出聯合國氣候機構使情況進一步惡化。證據顯示,2024年全球氣溫已突破 1.5°C 的門檻;美國退出《聯合國氣候變化綱要公約》(UNFCCC)不僅大幅削減了該組織的經費,也標誌著其國內政策重新轉向優先發展化石燃料。因此,美國的缺席預計將推遲全球淨零轉型的進程,迫使策略轉向替代框架,例如全球碳定價以及透過 G20 進行的小多邊合作。

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