The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
The Iran War is Causing Energy Chaos in Asia
English Summary
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have led to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting Gulf oil production by 10 million barrels per day and reducing strait transit to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, causing acute energy shortages across Asia. Asian governments are resorting to fuel rationing, shortened workweeks, and costly subsidies to manage the crisis, but most countries could exhaust oil reserves within a month, while factories shutter and tourism plummets. The unsustainable fiscal burden of subsidies—already pushing Indonesia past its legal deficit cap—combined with historical precedents of fuel-price-driven unrest across South and Southeast Asia, raises the risk of severe economic contraction and political instability if the conflict persists through the summer.
中文摘要
美國與以色列對伊朗發動空襲，導致德黑蘭封鎖荷莫茲海峽，波斯灣石油日產量驟減一千萬桶，海峽通行量降至戰前水準的不到一成，亞洲各國面臨嚴峻的能源短缺危機。各國政府被迫實施燃料配給、縮短每週工時並投入高昂補貼以應對危機，但多數國家的石油儲備恐在一個月內耗盡，同時工廠停工、觀光業急遽萎縮。補貼造成的財政負擔難以為繼——印尼已突破其法定赤字上限——加上南亞及東南亞地區因燃料價格上漲引發社會動盪的歷史前例，若衝突持續至夏季，將大幅升高嚴重經濟衰退與政治動盪的風險。
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