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The G 7’s Alignment on Iran and Ukraine Is Deeply Fragile

CFR | 2026-06-26 | defense

Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that while the G7 achieved a fragile consensus on Iran and Ukraine, European leaders must prioritize building strategic independence rather than relying on transatlantic alignment. This fragility stems from concerns that US commitments—particularly regarding Ukraine negotiations or implementation of agreements—may be unreliable or insufficient. Consequently, Europe and Ukraine must adopt a two-track strategy: pursuing cooperation with Washington while simultaneously dramatically increasing their own defense production capacity to define their negotiating terms independently.

中文摘要

本文論述,雖然G7在伊朗和烏克蘭問題上達成了脆弱的共識,但歐洲領導人必須將建立戰略獨立性置於首位,而非過度依賴跨大西洋的聯盟協調。這種不穩定性源於對美國承諾(特別是在烏克蘭談判或協議執行方面)可能不可靠或不足的擔憂。因此,歐洲和烏克蘭必須採取雙軌策略:一方面與華盛頓維持合作關係,另一方面大幅提升自身的國防生產能力,從而獨立制定並定義其談判條件。

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