The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Defending Europe if Russia Steps Out of the Gray Zone
English Summary
This brief warns that Europe must prepare to independently counter potential low-level Russian conventional attacks, such as drone strikes, as Moscow may exploit declining transatlantic trust to undermine NATO's collective defense. The authors argue that Russia's shift from hybrid 'gray zone' tactics to overt provocations could expose a perceived lack of U.S. reliability, particularly as Washington prioritizes securing a Ukraine peace deal. To mitigate this risk, European governments are urged to establish autonomous command structures, develop independent response menus in coordination with Ukraine, and rapidly bolster native air defense and intelligence capabilities.
中文摘要
本簡報警告，由於莫斯科可能利用日益削弱的跨大西洋互信來破壞北約的集體防禦，歐洲必須準備好獨立應對潛在的俄羅斯低強度常規攻擊（如無人機襲擊）。作者主張，隨著華盛頓優先促成烏克蘭和平協議，俄羅斯從混合「灰色地帶」戰術轉向公開挑釁，可能會暴露美國可靠性受損的問題。為降低此風險，歐洲各國政府應建立自主指揮架構，與烏克蘭協作制定獨立的應對方案，並迅速強化本土防空與情報能力。
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