ThinkTankWeekly

Middle Powers Take Center Stage

CFR | 2026-05-30 | economy

Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The global order is not collapsing, but fragmenting into exclusive, competing coalitions, prompting middle powers to hedge their bets and form smaller, self-protective blocs. This trend is fueled by the U.S.'s own policies, such as 'friendshoring' and the Inflation Reduction Act, which create selective, invitation-only economic clubs that exclude many potential partners. This exclusionary approach risks alienating the very middle powers the U.S. needs to maintain influence. To successfully lead a new international order, Washington must pivot from selective groupings to rebuilding inclusive, shared partnerships, prioritizing broad cooperation over transactional alliances.

中文摘要

全球秩序並非崩塌,而是正在碎片化,分裂為排他性、相互競爭的聯盟。這促使中等強國採取權衡利弊的策略,組建更小、更具自我保護性的集團。此趨勢的推動力源於美國自身的政策,例如「友邦化」(friendshoring)和《通膨削減法案》(IRA),這些政策創造了選擇性、僅限受邀參與的經濟俱樂部,排除了許多潛在的合作夥伴。這種排他性的做法,有使美國疏遠其維持影響力所必需的中等強國的風險。若想成功引領新的國際秩序,華盛頓必須從選擇性群體轉向重建包容、共享的夥伴關係,將優先考慮廣泛的合作,而非僅限於交易性的聯盟。

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