The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Time to Stop Forecasting China’s Surplus Away
English Summary
This CFR analysis argues against forecasting China’s external surplus to decline, citing a persistent trend toward a 10% of GDP surplus driven by China’s high savings rate (over 40%). Evidence includes the IMF’s consistent underestimation of the surplus, exacerbated by China’s property bubble burst and a depreciating exchange rate. The article highlights a systemic bias within the IMF towards deemphasizing imbalances, and points to the outlier nature of China’s savings rate compared to economies with similar rates. Consequently, policy should shift away from advocating for a reduction in China’s surplus and instead acknowledge China’s evolving comparative advantage, particularly in industrial policy.
中文摘要
本CFR分析認為不應預測中國的外部貿易盈餘將下降，理由是中國持續呈現10%的國內生產總值（GDP）盈餘的趨勢，這主要源於中國的儲蓄率高達40%以上。 證據包括國際貨幣基金會（IMF）對盈餘持續低估，並受到中國房地產泡沫爆發和匯率貶值的加劇。 該文章強調了IMF內部存在的一種系統性偏見，即對淡化不平衡現象的傾向，並指出中國儲蓄率在類似儲蓄率的經濟體中是極端情況。 因此，政策應從推動減少中國盈餘轉向，並承認中國不斷演變的比較優勢，尤其是在工業政策方面。
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