The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
A Turning Point in Ukraine
English Summary
A CFR analysis suggests a "turning point" in the Ukraine conflict, driven by mounting costs for Russia and a growing realistic possibility of a ceasefire. Key evidence includes the passage of U.S. aid legislation and Zelenskyy’s call for direct negotiations, alongside a largely frozen front line and a significant decline in Russia’s offensive capabilities. Russia’s diminishing returns on manpower, coupled with Ukraine’s drone superiority and expanded long-range strike capabilities, are shifting the balance of power. Critically, Western support for Ukraine, particularly regarding ballistic missile defense systems, is constrained by production limitations and reliance on European purchases, raising concerns about Ukraine’s future defensive capacity and potentially increasing civilian casualties.
中文摘要
美國戰略與國際研究中心（CFR）的分析指出，烏克蘭衝突可能出現轉捩點，主要受到俄羅斯日益增加的成本壓力以及達成停火的可能性逐漸增加所驅動。關鍵證據包括美國援助法案的通過、澤倫斯基呼籲直接談判，以及戰線基本停滯和俄羅斯攻勢能力顯著下降等情況。俄羅斯在人力方面的回報率下降，加上烏克蘭在無人機方面的優勢以及擴展的遠程襲擊能力，正在改變權力平衡。更重要的是，西方的對烏克蘭支持，特別是在後裝備方面，受到生產限制和歐洲採購依賴的影響，這引發了對烏克蘭未來防禦能力的擔憂，並可能導致平民傷亡增加。
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