The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Scaling China’s Hidden Intervention In the Foreign Exchange Market
English Summary
This CFR analysis argues that China’s central bank (PBOC) is engaging in a significant, though obscured, intervention in the foreign exchange market. While the PBOC claims rising foreign assets of state banks are simply the result of increased domestic foreign currency deposits, the evidence suggests otherwise. Specifically, the surge in state bank foreign currency deposits, coupled with the behavior of the foreign exchange settlement data, mirrors intervention activity – rising when the yuan faces downward pressure and falling when it appreciates. Historical examples of similar patterns, including interventions in 2005-2008 and 2012-2023 linked to interest rate differentials and economic events, bolster this suspicion. Consequently, the PBOC’s actions regarding foreign exchange purchases and settlement need further scrutiny to fully understand the extent of its influence on the yuan’s value.
中文摘要
本智利戰略與政策研究所（CFR）的分析認為，中國人民銀行（PBOC）正在對外匯市場進行顯著但隱蔽的干預。儘管中國人民銀行聲稱國有銀行資產增加僅僅是國內外匯存款增加的結果，但證據表明情況並非如此。具體而言，國有銀行外匯存款激增，以及外匯結算數據的行為，與干預活動相似——在人民幣面臨下行壓力時上升，在人民幣升值時下降。類似模式的歷史案例，包括與利率差異和經濟事件相關的2005-2008年和2012-2023年的干預，強化了這種懷疑。因此，需要對中國人民銀行關於外匯購買和結算行為進行進一步審查，以充分了解其對人民幣價值影響的程度。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that the U.S., through recent policy signals—such as questioning NATO's value or sympathizing with great-power territorial claims—is inadvertently adopting the core tenets of non-alignment, prioritizing transactional national interests over binding alliances. Historically, while non-alignment allowed developing nations to gain benefits without commitment, the analysis notes that this approach lacks the deep trust and shared obligations necessary for robust security structures. The implication is critical: by undermining established alliances, the U.S. risks losing its greatest strategic asset—the network of mutual commitments—as allies actively seek alternative bilateral or regional defense pacts.
-
3.
The roundtable established that implementing generational bans represents a powerful, long-term strategy for tackling deeply entrenched public health crises like tobacco use. Using the UK’s permanent ban on selling cigarettes to those born after 2009 as key evidence, experts analyzed how such policies fundamentally alter market dynamics and consumer behavior over time. These lessons suggest that other nations facing persistent addiction challenges should consider adopting similar age-gating or generational restrictions to accelerate decline and set a precedent for future public health policy interventions.
-
4.
The article argues that while Ukraine's deep strikes and Russia's mounting economic instability create a window for peace talks, President Putin remains committed to maximalist demands and may escalate conflict through increased air assaults. Key evidence supporting this tension includes the strain on Russian energy infrastructure versus Moscow's refusal to negotiate in good faith, preferring instead to expand its claims. Consequently, the immediate strategic implication is that Washington must lead intensive diplomacy—a 'shuttle diplomacy'—to establish a framework agreement centered on a ceasefire along current lines and defining long-term European security arrangements.
-
5.
Myanmar has collapsed into Asia’s deadliest conflict, marked by massive economic collapse, widespread famine, and extreme brutality from the military junta. Despite this catastrophic humanitarian crisis, international actors—including major powers and regional blocs like ASEAN—are largely ignoring or withdrawing support for democratic forces. This neglect allows the junta to consolidate power, receiving critical military aid from authoritarian allies such as Russia and Belarus. Policy implications suggest that global indifference is enabling a failed state environment, making Myanmar a highly volatile flashpoint whose instability threatens broader Indo-Pacific security.