The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
The Next Taiwan Crisis Won’t Be Like the Last
English Summary
CFR argues that a future Taiwan conflict will likely be a protracted, regional war involving multiple actors and external triggers, rather than a contained three-way contest. The report warns that China’s military modernization and gray-zone tactics have eroded U.S. deterrent advantages and shortened operational warning times. To address these new risks, the U.S. must shift from isolated planning to deeply integrated, pre-crisis consultative mechanisms with regional allies like Japan and the Philippines.
中文摘要
外交關係協會（CFR）指出，未來的台海衝突可能演變為一場涉及多方參與者與外部誘發因素的長期區域戰爭，而非僅限於三方的局限性對抗。報告警告，中國的軍事現代化與灰色地帶戰術已侵蝕美國的威懾優勢，並縮短了作戰預警時間。為應對這些新風險，美國必須將重心從孤立的規劃，轉向與日本及菲律賓等區域盟友建立深度整合的危機前諮詢機制。
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