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As a Strait of Hormuz Standoff Grows, Will Trump’s Fragile Iran Ceasefire Hold?

CFR | 2026-04-09 | middle_east

Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

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English Summary

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, is in place following weeks of conflict disrupting global energy markets and spreading throughout the Middle East. The ceasefire hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to U.S. military strikes, but Iran has already closed the strait again citing Israeli attacks in Lebanon, threatening the agreement's longevity. Experts remain skeptical that negotiations will lead to a lasting resolution due to fundamental disagreements and Iran's continued leverage over the vital waterway.

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