The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Coercing Iran: Why Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Has a Short Fuse
English Summary
The article argues that the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a high-risk gamble unlikely to succeed in coercing Iran into accepting U.S. terms. While the blockade aims to trigger an economic collapse, the analysis notes that Iran has demonstrated resilience, and the global energy market remains highly vulnerable to escalation. Furthermore, the U.S. faces significant domestic political backlash and the risk of a direct military confrontation with Iran or China. Consequently, the authors suggest that the potential for catastrophic global economic fallout outweighs the strategic benefits, making the current policy unsustainable.
中文摘要
本文論述美國對霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖行動是一場高風險的賭注，難以成功迫使伊朗接受美國的條件。儘管該封鎖旨在引發經濟崩潰，但分析指出伊朗展現了韌性，且全球能源市場極易受到升級衝突的衝擊。此外，美國國內面臨巨大的政治反彈，並存在與伊朗或中國發生直接軍事衝突的風險。因此，作者們認為，潛在的災難性全球經濟後果超過了戰略利益，使得當前政策難以持續。
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