ThinkTankWeekly

The New Saudi Strategy, With F. Gregory Gause III

CFR | 2026-03-19 | middle_east

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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F. Gregory Gause III argues that Saudi Crown Prince MBS has shifted from an aggressive, interventionist foreign policy to one emphasizing regional stability after Iran's 2019 strike on Saudi oil facilities and the lack of U.S. response. Saudi Arabia now prioritizes economic modernization (Vision 2030), opposes U.S. military action against Iran for fear of retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and has raised the cost of Israeli normalization by demanding a pathway to Palestinian statehood. The analysis highlights a growing Saudi-Emirati divergence over whether to back central governments or non-state actors, while Riyadh continues to view Washington—not Beijing—as its primary security and technology partner, particularly in AI and defense.

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