The article argues that the U.S., through recent policy signals—such as questioning NATO's value or sympathizing with great-power territorial claims—is inadvertently adopting the core tenets of non-alignment, prioritizing transactional national interests over binding alliances. Historically, while non-alignment allowed developing nations to gain benefits without commitment, the analysis notes that this approach lacks the deep trust and shared obligations necessary for robust security structures. The implication is critical: by undermining established alliances, the U.S. risks losing its greatest strategic asset—the network of mutual commitments—as allies actively seek alternative bilateral or regional defense pacts.
Conflict and Cooperation in the Red Sea
English Summary
This CFR analysis argues that the Red Sea is a complex space characterized by both conflict and cooperation, driven by shifting power dynamics and strategic interests. The region’s governance has historically focused on treating the Horn of Africa as a buffer zone, neglecting its agency and exacerbating instability through clientelist relationships. Current tensions stem from overlapping conflicts, competition among regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a divergence in priorities between major powers and littoral states. The report advocates for a new ‘Red Sea Compact’ emphasizing transparency and mutual recognition to restore stability, alongside a broader understanding of instability beyond traditional maritime security concerns, including unresolved regional conflicts and economic vulnerabilities.
中文摘要
本CFR分析認為，紅海是一個複雜的空間，既存在衝突也有合作，受到不斷變化的權力格局和戰略利益的驅動。該地區的治理歷史上一直將索馬里海峽地區視為緩衝區，忽視了該地區的自主性，並通過裙帶關係加劇了不穩定性。當前的緊張局勢源於多重衝突的交織、如沙特阿拉伯和埃及等地區大國之間的競爭，以及主要大國與沿海國家的優先事項分歧。報告呼籲制定一份新的‘紅海協議’，強調透明度和相互承認，以恢復穩定，同時更全面地認識不穩定性，超越傳統的海洋安全擔憂，包括未解決的地區衝突和經濟脆弱性。
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