The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.
Will Iran Turn Into a Forever War?
English Summary
The article warns that attempts to coerce Iran through incremental military escalation risk triggering an uncontrollable 'forever war,' citing historical failures like Vietnam. It argues that current US actions, based on a misreading of Iranian resilience, will provoke retaliation and set off a cycle of strikes in the Persian Gulf, where Iran can exert significant economic leverage by disrupting global commerce. To mitigate this escalating conflict, the analysis advises against unilateral military action and instead recommends that the United States appeal to the UN for a multinational force dedicated to ensuring freedom of navigation through critical international waterways.
中文摘要
本文警告，試圖透過逐步軍事升級來脅迫伊朗的行為，有極高風險引發一場無法控制的「持久戰」，並援引越南等歷史失敗案例作為佐證。文章主張，當前美國的行動是基於對伊朗韌性（resilience）的誤判，這將必然激化反制報復，從而觸發波斯灣一系列的打擊循環。在這一過程中，伊朗可以透過擾亂全球商貿來行使巨大的經濟槓桿。為緩解這種不斷升級的衝突，本分析建議美國應避免採取單邊軍事行動，而是提請聯合國（UN）協助建立一支多國聯軍，專責確保關鍵國際水道的航行自由。
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