ThinkTankWeekly

Additional Concerns Regarding President Trump’s “Golden Dome”

CATO | 2026-03-29 | defense

Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, United States, Defense

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English Summary

The Trump administration's proposed 'Golden Dome' air and missile defense system, modeled on Israel's Iron Dome, faces fundamental viability challenges exposed by Iran's recent military operations. Iran's successful penetration of Israel's AMD system through mass missile attacks and saturation tactics demonstrates that such defense networks can be overwhelmed by determined adversaries with greater capabilities than Iran, such as China or Russia. The system's cost-benefit analysis is deeply unfavorable: interceptors cost $12.7 million each while Iranian missiles cost $1-2 million, and the system's estimated $844 billion to $1.1 trillion price tag would provide minimal strategic benefit and represent a wasteful opportunity cost when resources are desperately needed elsewhere.

中文摘要

川普政府提出的「金色圓頂」空防與飛彈防禦系統,仿效以色列的鐵穹系統,正因伊朗近期軍事行動所暴露出的根本可行性挑戰而面臨困境。伊朗透過大規模飛彈襲擊和飽和攻擊成功穿透以色列的防禦系統,這表明此類防禦網絡可能會被能力超越伊朗的堅定對手(例如中國或俄羅斯)所壓倒。該系統的成本效益分析極為不利:每枚攔截器成本為 1,270 萬美元,而伊朗飛彈的成本僅為 100 萬至 200 萬美元,且該系統估計高達 8,440 億至 1.1 兆美元的價格標籤,將僅提供最低限度的戰略效益,並在資源急需他處之際造成巨大的機會成本浪費。

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