The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The Fatal Contradiction at the Heart of Socialist Prison Abolitionism
English Summary
The article identifies a fatal contradiction in socialist prison abolitionism: achieving socialism requires extensive government control over key economic sectors, which necessitates criminalizing countless activities and thus requiring a massive state coercive apparatus. Historically, attempts to enforce such sweeping regulations have generated black markets that must be suppressed through mass coercion, confirming the need for incarceration. Consequently, the author argues that genuine reductions in incarceration are not achieved by increasing state control or making more things illegal, but rather by significantly reducing the scope of criminal law (e.g., abolishing drug prohibition and limiting immigration restrictions).
中文摘要
本文指出社會主義監獄廢除主義存在一個根本矛盾：實現社會主義需要政府對關鍵經濟部門進行廣泛控制，而這又必然要求將無數活動定為犯罪，從而需要建立龐大的國家強制力體系。歷史經驗顯示，試圖執行如此全面的管制往往會產生黑市，進而必須透過大規模的強制手段來鎮壓，這反過來證實了監禁制度的必要性。因此，作者主張，真正減少監禁規模的方法並非增加國家控制或將更多行為列為非法，而是大幅縮減刑法本身的範圍（例如廢除藥物禁令和放寬移民限制）。
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