The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Why Overdose Deaths Are Falling—and It Isn’t Because of the Drug War
English Summary
The decline in overdose deaths is not attributable to intensified law enforcement or the 'drug war,' but rather to shifts in user behavior and public health adaptations. Key contributing factors include younger generations engaging in fewer substances, a notable transition from injecting to smoking drugs (which carries a lower overdose risk than injection), and the widespread adoption of harm-reduction strategies like naloxone access and supervised consumption sites. Policy implications suggest that resources should be redirected away from prohibition and interdiction efforts and toward robust public health measures, emphasizing harm reduction and addressing the underlying behavioral and medical factors driving the decline.
中文摘要
藥物過量致死人數的下降，並非歸因於執法力度加強或「禁毒戰」的推動，而是源於使用者行為的轉變和公共衛生適應。關鍵的促成因素包括年輕一代使用藥物種類的減少、從注射吸毒轉向吸食藥物（吸食相較於注射具有較低的過量風險），以及奈洛克（naloxone）可及性與監控使用場所等減害策略的廣泛採用。政策意涵顯示，資源應從禁毒和攔截行動轉移，投入到健全的公共衛生措施中，強調減害原則，並著重於解決驅動下降趨勢的根本行為和醫療因素。
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