The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Free-Market Reforms Take Time to Pay Off
English Summary
The analysis argues that assessing free-market reforms too early risks misjudging their long-term impact, as initial years often show near-zero or modest declines in GDP per capita. Evidence from 30 countries suggests that while immediate effects are minimal, positive growth typically emerges and increases steadily after a period of approximately three to five years. Reforms related to trade and financial liberalization tend to yield quicker results than broader institutional restructuring or privatization. Policymakers should therefore anticipate short-term political and economic pressure following reforms but maintain confidence in the substantial long-run gains from market liberalization.
中文摘要
本分析指出，過早評估自由市場改革的成效有誤判其長期影響的風險，因為初期年份往往呈現國內生產總值（GDP）人均產出接近零或僅微幅下降。來自 30 個國家的證據顯示，儘管短期效果甚微，但積極增長通常會在經過約三至五年期後逐漸顯現並持續增加。與貿易和金融自由化相關的改革，其成效往往比更廣泛的制度重組或私有化帶來更快的成果。因此，政策制定者應預期改革初期會面臨政治和經濟壓力，但仍應對市場自由化帶來的可觀長期收益保持信心。
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