The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21 st century
English Summary
Brookings’ expert roundtable argues that a U.S. "Donroe Doctrine" push for hemispheric primacy is more likely to weaken than strengthen Washington’s position in long-term competition with China, though one contributor contends it could restore deterrence by denying Beijing footholds near U.S. borders. The dominant reasoning is that coercive regional tactics and unilateral moves drain U.S. military bandwidth from the Indo-Pacific, damage alliances, and erode soft power while giving China narrative and diplomatic advantages. Experts also note China’s already deep regional footprint, including major trade, investment, and infrastructure ties across Latin America, which makes a clean spheres-of-influence rollback unrealistic. Strategically, a formal U.S.-China spheres bargain is assessed as unstable and asymmetric: it could pressure smaller states to hedge, accelerate regional militarization and possible nuclear proliferation, and incentivize revisionist claims elsewhere, suggesting U.S. policy should prioritize alliance credibility, rules-based coordination, and positive economic alternatives over coercion.
中文摘要
布魯金斯學會的專家圓桌認為，美國若以「Donroe Doctrine」推動西半球主導權，在與中國的長期競爭中更可能削弱而非強化華府地位；但也有一位與談人主張，透過阻止北京在美國邊境周邊建立立足點，或可恢復嚇阻力。主流論點指出，脅迫性的區域手段與單邊作為會分散美軍在印太的兵力與注意力、損害同盟關係、侵蝕軟實力，並讓中國在敘事與外交上取得優勢。專家也強調，中國已在該區形成深厚布局，包括在拉丁美洲廣泛的貿易、投資與基礎設施連結，使「勢力範圍」的全面回退並不現實。從戰略上看，正式的美中勢力範圍交易被評估為不穩定且不對稱：它可能迫使中小國採取避險策略、加速區域軍備化甚至核擴散風險，並激勵他處的修正主義主張；因此，美國政策應優先強化同盟可信度、以規則為基礎的協調，以及具吸引力的正向經濟替代方案，而非依賴脅迫。
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