The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Can zero-tariff policy rebalance China-Africa trade?
English Summary
China's expansion of zero-tariff access for African nations is unlikely to rebalance trade on its own, as the continent's exports remain heavily concentrated in low-value raw materials and minerals. Despite initiatives to boost agricultural trade, China maintains a persistent $60 billion trade surplus with Africa, highlighting deep-seated structural imbalances. To achieve long-term growth, Africa must leverage this policy to attract foreign direct investment and drive industrialization, positioning itself as a strategic, low-tariff production hub for the Chinese market.
中文摘要
中國對非洲國家擴大零關稅准入，單憑此舉難以實現貿易再平衡，因為非洲大陸的出口依然高度集中在低價值的原材料與礦產。儘管有促進農業貿易的措施，中國對非洲仍維持著 600 億美元的持續貿易順差，凸顯了根深蒂固的結構性失衡。為實現長期增長，非洲必須利用此政策吸引外國直接投資並推動工業化，將自身定位為面向中國市場的戰略性低關稅生產樞紐。
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