The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update
English Summary
Brookings reports that U.S. net migration turned negative in 2025 for the first time in over fifty years due to restrictive administration policies, with the trend expected to persist through 2026. This reversal is driven by sharp declines in visa and refugee inflows coupled with increased interior enforcement and voluntary departures. Economically, this shift has slashed 'breakeven' employment growth to near-zero levels, dampened GDP, and is projected to reduce consumer spending by up to $110 billion. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize the unemployment rate over raw job growth figures to accurately assess labor market health and adjust monetary policy.
中文摘要
布魯金斯學會報告指出，受政府限制性政策影響，2025 年美國淨移民人數出現五十多年來首次負增長，且預計此趨勢將持續至 2026 年。這一逆轉主要源於簽證發放與難民入境人數驟減，以及境內執法力度加強和自願離境人數增加。在經濟層面，此轉變將「收支平衡」就業增長降至接近零的水平，抑制了國內生產總值（GDP），並預計將減少高達 1,100 億美元的消費者支出。因此，決策者應優先關注失業率而非原始就業增長數據，以便準確評估勞動力市場健康狀況並調整貨幣政策。
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