The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Taxing index funds: Tax timing, investor control, and household wealth
English Summary
The article argues that current tax law creates structural disparities in after-tax wealth accumulation between mutual funds and ETFs, even when holding identical portfolios. This difference stems from the tax externality in mutual funds, where one investor's redemption can trigger capital gains taxes for others. Conversely, ETFs largely allow investors to control the timing of gains realization. Policymakers face a fundamental choice: whether to tie capital gains taxation to fund-level transactions (earlier revenue collection) or to investor-level sales decisions (greater investor control). This design choice has significant distributional consequences, as the current tax advantages disproportionately benefit higher-income households.
中文摘要
本文論述現行稅法在互權基金（mutual funds）與交易所買賣基金（ETFs）之間，即使持有相同的投資組合，仍會造成稅後財富積累的結構性差異。這種差異源於互權基金的稅收外部性，即一位投資人的贖回行為可能觸發其他投資人的資本利得稅。相反地，ETF在很大程度上允許投資人掌握資本利得實現的時間點。政策制定者面臨一個根本性的選擇：是將資本利得稅與基金層級的交易（較早的稅收收入）掛鉤，還是與投資人層級的出售決策（更高的投資人控制權）掛鉤。這一設計選擇具有重大的分配影響，因為現行稅收優勢不成比例地使高收入家庭受益。
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