The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Tracking the labor market and jobs
English Summary
Brookings has released an updated interactive tool, "Tracking the labor market and jobs," designed to provide detailed monthly monitoring of the U.S. workforce through various demographic lenses. The tool utilizes Current Population Survey microdata to offer granular insights into labor force participation, employment-population ratios, and nuanced unemployment metrics like the U-5 rate. By allowing cross-tabulation of factors such as nativity, education, and parental status, it highlights specific disparities and trends that headline economic figures often obscure. This capability is essential for policymakers to design evidence-based interventions that address the unique challenges faced by different segments of the labor market.
中文摘要
布魯金斯學會發布了更新後的互動式工具「追蹤勞動力市場與就業」，旨在透過多個人口統計視角對美國勞動力進行詳細的每月監測。該工具利用《當前人口調查》（CPS）的微觀數據，針對勞動力參與率、就業人口比以及如 U-5 失業率等細緻的失業指標提供深入見解。透過對出生地、教育程度和家長身分等因素進行交叉分析，該工具揭示了主要經濟數據往往掩蓋的特定差異與趨勢。這項功能對於決策者設計循證干預措施以應對勞動力市場不同群體所面臨的獨特挑戰至關重要。
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